New Zealand could take a massive step towards winning the 2025 Rugby Championship this Saturday. After fending off South Africa at fortress Eden Park last weekend, the All Blacks and the Boks head to the foot of the North Island for this match in Wellington.
A win for the hosts would give them 14 points from four games, 15 if they win with the bonus point. South Africa is currently on just five points from three games, so they would almost be out of the running with just two rounds remaining in the comp.
Australia is still in with a shout after beating Argentina by one point in Townsville last time out. A repeat performance in Sydney and a New Zealand win tomorrow would make for a thrilling pair of Bledisloe Cup matches in Rounds 5 and 6.
New Zealand VS South Africa Venue: Wellington Regional Stadium, Wellington
New Zealand VS South Africa Date: Saturday, September 13
New Zealand VS South Africa Odds:
History
Scott Robinson and his side beat the Boks 24-17 last week, a massive win for several reasons. Defending an undefeated run at Eden Park that stretches back to 1994 was of historical importance, but ending a run of four defeats at all venues to the Boks was of more pressing need.
There is more immediate silverware on the line here, too. The Boks and All Blacks play yearly for the Freedom Cup. South Africa won this trophy last year, so a draw in the two-game series in 2025 will see South Africa retain it.
New Zealand
The most interesting team news for New Zealand is on the wing, where sevens flyer Leroy Carter replaces Rieko Ioane. This will be Carter’s international debut in the fifteen-a-side game. Ioane has struggled for form as of late, with the Boks again expected to go to the air, where he has particularly struggled.
Another significant change in the backline comes on the other wing, where Emoni Narawa is out injured. This means Will Jordan will slide across from fullback, with the always impressive Damian McKenzie replacing him at No. 15. Rueben Love slots onto the bench as outside back cover.
South Africa
South Africa head coach Rassie Erasmus was not happy with the play of his backline in Auckland. The Boks have impressive strength in depth, so it is no surprise that Rassie has made significant changes to his starting XV.
There is a new pairing in the halves, with Cobus Reinach replacing Grant Williams at scrum-half and Sacha Feinberg-Mugomezulu at pivot in place of Handre Pollard. There are also starting spots for Aphelele Fassi at fullback and Ethan Hooker on the wing.
Interestingly, the bench has a 5-3 split. Williams and Manie Libbok are the specialist halves, while Andre Esterhuizen is a utility who could also flank if Erasmus wants to try something different.
Best Bets
The Boks have succeeded in Wellington, winning the last two times they have played in New Zealand’s Capital. They weren’t far away last week, and the All Blacks put a ton of emotional effort into keeping the Eden Park streak alive. I won’t be shocked if that mental pressure took its toll, and I would take the Boks to cover and potentially win outright at 43/20.
