South Africa got its 2025 Test season off to a winning start as it beat a spirited Italy side 42-24 last Saturday in Pretoria. With a win on Saturday, the Springboks get the chance to whitewash the Italians in the series before turning their eyes to the challenge of Georgia in Nelspruit next weekend.
These games act as warm-ups for The Rugby Championship, which kicks off next month.
South Africa VS Italy Venue: Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, Port Elizabeth
South Africa VS Italy Date: Saturday, July 12
BetXchange South Africa VS Italy Odds:
History
The Boks added to their 78% win percentage at Loftus last weekend. It was their eighth win in eight games against Italy on home soil, but for the first time, they didn’t win by at least 40 points in the last three games against the Azzuri.
The score looked better than it could have for South Africa thanks to the kicking brilliance of fly-half Handre Pollard. Pollard was a perfect six for six off the tee, hitting all his conversation attempts. Morne van den Berg crossed for a pair of tries, while Jesse Kriel, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Vincent Koch, and Marco van Staden all dotted down for the Boks.
South Africa
Rassie Erasmus was less than pleased that a 25-point lead at halftime faded into an 18-point win. The Bomb Squad never got going, with the Italians finding their own second wind and frustrating South Africa in the second stanza.
There are a ridiculous 11 changes to the starting XV, with Rassie demanding more from his charges. Willie Le Roux will bring up his 100th cap on Saturday, while the half-back pairing of Manie Libbok and Grant Williams shows the depth the Boks have at 9 and 10.
Italy
Italy may have lost, but the manner of the defeat will give them hope that they can play the Boks tough again this weekend. Given that this is an experimental and inexperienced Italian squad, they played above their level at Loftus.
Italy will welcome back one of their stars, with bruising back-rower Sebastian Negri recovering from injury to make the starting lineup. An aggressive operator, Negri is the type of foil the Italians will need if the Boks bring their A game.
Look for Manuel Zuliani to be another thorn in the side of the Boks. He was Italy’s player of he match in the first Test, running his motor out after 50 minutes of intense tackling, winning turnovers, and scoring a try.
Best Bets
Italy was 23/1 to beat the Bos last weekend and has drifted marginally to 24/1 in Port Elizabeth. The handicap has come down, with South Africa favored to win by 37.5 points.
I thought the Boks had a shot at covering the 42.5 they were given last week, but Italy were more punchy than I expected. This feels like the correct number for the line, but I expect South Africa to be better defensively after allowing an unexpected 24 points last time out.
Take South Africa to cover as they lay down a dominant win by 40+ points.
