South Africa continues its November series of internationals on Saturday as the Boks take on Italy in Turin.
This is the third of five matches that South Africa will play in the Northern Hemisphere this tour. The Boks made a significant statement last week by beating France in Paris after an easy win over Japan at Twickenham. They will look to back up that 32-17 victory here before playing Ireland and Wales to complete their international calendar for 2025.
Italy VS South Africa Venue: Allianz Stadium, Turin
Italy VS South Africa Date: Saturday, November 15
Italy VS South Africa Odds:
History
Historically, this is about as one-sided as it gets when two Tier 1 nations meet. South Africa has beaten Italy 18 of the 19 times they have faced off. Italy’s only win came in November 2016, when the Azzuri beat the Boks 20-18.
South Africa made easy work of Italy during that international period in July. Their hosts physiically manhandled an understrength Italian side at Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium as South Africa didn’t concede a single point in a dominant 45-0 win.
This one is expected to be much closer, especially after Italy picked up a massive win of their own last weekend. The Italians took down Australia 26-19 in Udine, another disastrous turn for the Wallabies as their home World Cup grows ever closer.
Italy
Gonzalo Quesada has this team moving in the right direction. The win over the Wallabies followed Six Nations’ victories in the Northern spring against Scotland and Wales.
This is a team with a young, talented, and ambitious core. The center partnership of Juan Ignacio Brez and Tommaso Menoncello is as good as anything in international rugby, while show-stealing fullback Ange Capuozzo will weave his magic if given the chance.
The challenge will be pfont, where Italy is undersized compared to the Boks. They will need big games out of No. 8 Lorenzo Canoone and the entire tight five.
South Africa
Head coach Rassie Erasmus has embarrassing levels of strength in depth with this current South African side. He has made 11 changes to the team that beat France, still putting out a dominant-looking unit but keeping some of his stars rested for what should be an epic match in Dublin next weekend.
The only four starters keeping their place are captain Siya Kolisi, alongside Kurt-Lee Arendse, Damian Willemse, and Boan Venter. A second Test appearance comes for Zachary Porthen up front, with the likes of Marco van Staden, Jean Kleyn, and Canan Moodie in the run-on XV.
Best Bets
Erasus clearly wants South Africa to finish strong in this Test. He has gone for a 6-2 split on the bench, but it is a unique mix of two recognized locks and two backrowers among the subs.
The line here is set at 17.5. South Africa has won four in a row against the Italians by at least 18 points. I like that trend to end here. I think Italy keeps this closer than in the recent past, and South Africa wins in the 10 to 15 point range.
