Wales VS South Africa Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Wales VS South Africa Date: Sunday, November 23
Wales VS South Africa BetXchange Odds:
History
There has never been this much of a gulf in class between the Springboks and Wales. South Africa continues to be the best side in the world, coming off of a 29-20 win over England at Twickenham last weekend and a victory over Scotland previously.
Wales, in contrast, is in shambles. This is a country with a proud history that first started playing international rugby union in 1881. Last Saturday’s 52-20 defeat by Australia was the most points ever scored by the Wallabies against Wales in Wales, and it was the 11th Test defeat in a row for the Welsh. That is their worst run in their 143-year history.
The big question in Wales is what this string of results means for head coach Warren Gatland. The Kiwi’s first spell in charge of the national team saw Wales win four Six Nation’s Titles, three of which were Grand Slams, and reach the semifinals of the Rugby World Cups in 2011 and 2019.
This is not the same type of Wales team that Gatland left. The cupboards are not quite bare, but they are very thinly stocked. The Welsh regions are experiencing a player retention and financial crisis at the domestic level, with those issues bleeding through to the national side. Wales is undersized, under-experienced, and under-prepared for what it faces internationally with its current squad and setup.
This is not an ideal combination of factors when the Springboks come to town.
Wales
Four changes to the starting lineup are made as Wales looks to get something (anything) out of its autumn campaign. The most significant is a change in the problem No. 10 position. Sam Costello comes into the lineup in that role, replacing Gareth Anscombe. Rio Dyer also returns, with the flyer out on the wing as the versatile Blair Murray shifts to fullback.
Anscombe’s omission puts into context Wales’ youth in the backline. Players in jumpers 9 through 15 have just 61 caps combined, while the whole of the Welsh matchday 23 boasts 334 caps. Compare this to South Africa, with the Boks having an astonishing 431 caps on their bench alone.
South Africa
South Africa head coach Rassie Erasmus has an embarrassing wealth of talent to choose from on Saturday. This is because the ‘Boks have been so effective at blending new caps with established stars over the past couple of World Cup cycles, constantly increasing the overall talent pool’s number and depth.
The most exciting team news for South Africa is that brothers Jaden and Jordan Hendrikse will be paired in the halves. They become the 35th set of brothers to represent the ‘Boks, with Jaden at nine and Jordan at 10.
The team, in general, is a lesson in depth with players like Aphelele Fassi (15)m, Jean Kleyn (4), and Thomas du Toit (1) getting runouts with the starting XV. As mentioned, the bench depth is insane, with players of the caliber of Malcolm Marx, Vincent Koch, and Eben Etzebeth set to join the fray when Rassie sees fit.
Best Bets
Wales has won just once in the last eight times these two countries have met. That was a 31-12 win in Bloemfontein in 2022. In the last two matches, South Africa won 41-13 (Twickenham) and 52-16 (Cardiff).
I expect a similar result here, with the power of the ‘Boks being too much for Wales. This may be Gatland’s last match at the helm, and his team will go down by 30+ points to the Springboks.
