The race for European places in the Premier League has never been more exciting.
Just two games remain in the 2024-25 Premier League season. It may feel like Liverpool were crowned champions months ago and that the three relegated clubs have been down since Christmas, but the fight for Europe has kept this season as captivating as ever.
Here is a look at which teams are still alive for Europe, which can find their way into the Champions League, and how it could all play out as every team has six points remaining to play for.
How Many European Places Are Available?
The success of English teams in Europe secured a top-two spot in the UEFA Coefficient at the Champions League quarter-final stage. That means the top five clubs in the Premier League this season will play in Europe’s top-tier competition next season.
England will have a sixth team fighting for the trophy in 2025-26, with Manchester United or Spurs set to win this season’s Europa League. They are mired near the bottom of the EPL log, making them redundant regarding league finish permutations.
The FA Cup final on Saturday will either create a European spot or take one away. If Manchester City wins the cup, the Europa League places will go to the teams finishing sixth AND seventh in the league. If Crystal Palace cause an upset, then sixth place will be the only Premier League place worth a Europa League spot.
England also gets a Europa Conference League entry. That is part of the reward for winning the Carabao Cup. Newcastle won that trophy this season, but they are looking likely to finish in the top 5 and trade their Conference League berth for a Champions League place. If that happens, the Conference League entry falls to the highest placed team in the Premier League that has not already qualified for Europe.
In short, sixth guarantees a European spot, seventh virtually guarantees one, and eighth relies on the Citizens taking care of Palace this weekend.
Games That Matter This Weekend
Aston Villa VS Tottenham Hotspur – Friday
Pick: Aston Villa to win & total goals over 3.5 – 37/27
Spurs gave up on the Premier League season months ago. Their sole focus is the Europa League final against Manchester United on Wednesday. They also have no fit attacking midfielders, with James Maddison, Lucas Bergvall, and Dejan Kulusevski all out for the season. Villa walk this 3-1.
Chelsea VS Manchester United – Friday
Pick: Chelsea to win & total goals over 3.5 – 23/13
See above, but change United for Spurs and Chelsea for Villa. My only worry here is hitting the over, with Nicolas Jackson missing for Chelsea because of his stupidity last time out against Newcastle. Even so, United don’t care about the league right now.
West Ham United VS Nottingham Forest – Sunday
Pick: Draw – 12/5
Forest’s wheels have fallen off at the wrong time. The team’s play under Nuno Espirito Santo relies more on working and pressing defensively without the ball than any other team in the league. This has caught up with them, and their players have looked shot over the last few weeks. West Ham haven’t done much under Graham Potter, but they will do enough to play spoiler here.
Brentford VS Fulham – Sunday
Pick: Brentford to win – 24/25
Assuming that the European places go down to eighth, Brentford is in pole position to take that last spot. They are in excellent form at just the right time, having picked up 13 points from the last 15 available. Bryan Mbeumo and Yoanoe Wissa have been exceptional this season, with both touted for big-money moves this summer. Fulham have fallen off at the wrong time, winning just one of their last five matches. Go with the form guide here.
Arsenal VS Newcastle – Sunday
Pick: Newcastle to win – 11/4
This is the game of the weekend. Neither team has locked in a top-five finish, as Villa are five points behind the Gunners and three adrift of the Magpies. Arsenal’s form has been spotty, with just one win in their last five Premier League games and three draws in that span. Newcastle have 10 points from their last 15, with a huge win over Chelsea last time out. I like both to qualify for the Champions League, with Newcastle winning here as the team with slightly more incentive.
