Liverpool vs Everton Prediction

Fresh off a disappointing result in France against PSG, Liverpool enter the weekend against their improving cross-town rivals Everton in the latest installment of the most ill-tempered derby in the Premier League.

Liverpool vs Everton Preview and Prediction

Fact of Interest:

• Everton’s last win against Liverpool was 8 years ago at Goodison Park, courtesy of a 2-0 win with goals from Cahill and Arteta. Everton’s last win at Anfield was nearly 30 years ago in the ill-tempered 1-0 win in September 1999.
• Liverpool are one of only two unbeaten sides in the league this season.
• Everton have only won once in away matches this season, against Leicester City.
• Liverpool are tied for the least goals conceded (5), and have conceded just one goal at home in league play, being the sole consolation goal for Cardiff in their 4-1 defeat at Anfield.
• Liverpool have scored 65% of their goals this season in the second half of matches.
• Similarly, Everton have scored 70% of their goals this season in the second half of matches.
• Mohamed Salah has 1 goal in 1 appearance against Everton in last’s season draw in the same fixture.
• Sadio Mane has scored 3 goals against Everton in 8 matches, 2 in a Liverpool shirt.
• Roberto Firmino is yet to score against Everton after 6 appearances.
• Daniel Sturridge is the most prolific in this fixture with 7 goals in 13 appearances.
• Richarlison is yet to score against Liverpool after 2 appearances.
• Gylfi Sigurdsson has scored 4 goals against Liverpool in 14 matches, 1 in a Everton shirt.

Match Facts & Summary

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Scheduling Considerations:

Liverpool faced a difficult away trip to France to play PSG in a tie crucial to their Champions League qualification. Everton enjoyed a full week’s break with no matches in midweek. 

Injury Considerations:

Liverpool remain without Alex Oxlade Chamberlain due to long term injury, and Adam Lallana wasn’t able to recover from his recent muscle injury in time to make the squad. Jordan Henderson is suspended. Everton have no major injury concerns. 

Expected Line-ups and Tactical Considerations:

Liverpool have recently made some adjustments to the tactical shape that served reasonably well initially; the team’s shift to 4231 has been welcomed for it merits in creativity and midfield expression, depending on the personnel. Liverpool have also manufactured considerable defensive prowess having conceded just 5 goals which is tied for the lowest in the league at present.

Given the side selected against PSG in midweek which bizarrely featured a shift back to the less than effective 433 system, Jurgen Klopp should implement a 4231 for the latest Merseyside derby. The back five of Alisson, Alexander-Arnold, Robertson, Van Dijk with the debate being the fast-improving Joe Gomez likely to be preferred than the erratic veteran Dejan Lovren. The midfield pairing should feature the versatile box to box link Gini Wijnaldum, while his partner is relatively likely to be Fabinho on the basis of Milner’s appearance in midfield against PSG.  Upfront, the front 4 is likely to return to type, with Firmino operating in the 10 role (a familiar replay of his days at Hoffenheim) with Shaqiri returning to the lineup and Mane either side of Firmino, and Mohamed Salah leading the frontline.

Everton’s placement at 6^th has quietly become a testament of their excellent home record and a healthy run of 4 wins in the last 6 matches. Marco Silva’s reputation has continued to grow off the back of some great form from some recycled veterans (Sigurdsson, Gueye and Coleman) and emerging youngsters (Keane, Richarlison and Digne).

Silva has kept faith with a 4231 since season commencement, and has made all but one change to the first team XI in the last 5 fixtures. Colombian centre back Yerry Mina has made a recent break into the side ahead of Kurt Zouma, and its his physicality expected to lineup in front of Jordan Pickford and alongside Michael Keane, Lucas Digne and Seamus Coleman. In midfield, anchor and destroyer Idrissa Gueye should start alongside Portuguese utility midfielder Andre Gomes, who has also broken into the lineup in recent matches. Up front, the front 4 is fairly formidable thanks to a blend of creative veterans Sigurdsson and Walcott, the highly regarded trickster Bernard and top scoring young starlet Richarlison.

Prediction

Marco Silva’s charm as a manager has certainly made an impression in England, and Everton have quietly assembled a reasonably effective side with a healthy mix of industry, steel and attacking variation. Their improvement in form is logically linked to this settling group of decent quality and even though they lack the same stars and depth that Liverpool possess, it’s clear that Everton have enough in their locker to fancy their chances of causing an upset.

Liverpool, meanwhile, for all their great expectation and flash, still seem to be lacking the convincing performances which feel as if they’re taking far longer to manifest than last season, even though the numbers to a fair extent suggest otherwise. Their matchup in France would have taken a fair bit of wind out of the sails, and while the Reds have managed to do a good job to keep up with Manchester City, it’s not unreasonable to suggest that they’ve had moments where it’s appeared as if they’ve scraped the bottom of the creativity barrel to force goals unconvincingly.

That being said, Liverpool’s home record and defence, coupled with Everton’s poor history in this fixture and a less than ideal away record suggests that it’s hard to see anything but a solid Liverpool win in this fixture, even if the actual details thereof may be more complicated (and hopefully more entertaining) than the numbers suggest.

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Please note betting odds quoted are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.