South Africa VS Italy Venue: Loftus Versfled, Pretoria
South Africa VS Italy Date: Saturday, July 5
BetXchange South Africa VS Italy Odds:
History
The Springboks have yet to play a Test in 2025, but they are overwhelming favorites to smash Italy at fortress Loftus on Saturday.
The Boks have a 78% win percentage at the venue, with this being the first time they have faced Italy at Loftus. They have won all seven previous meetings on South African soil, and their last two matches against Italy have both been 40-point wins.
South Africa
South Africa comes into this one after a 54-7 mutilation of the Barbarians last weekend in an unofficial test. That was a massive stylistic clash, with the Baa-Baas known for their free-flowing, pass-happy brand of rugby and South Africa known for dominating teams with their power and aggression. It went just about as you would expect from the final scoreline.
South Africa has gone strong. Twelve of the team that won the 2023 World Cup are in the starting team, with seven more primed to come off the bench in the second half and add fresh power to the game.
The big news is that Damian Willemse will start at fullback for the Boks. This is his first match in an international shirt since the 2023 World Cup final. The lock pairing of Eben Etzebeth and Lood de Jager is terrifying, with Vincent Tshituka starting at 7 in his official debut.
Italy
Italy is also coming into this one with a big win. They romped to an emphatic victory over Namibia, scoring 11 tries against South Africa’s neighbors. Unfortunately for the Azzuri, the step up in class is likely to overwhelm their young and inexperienced squad.
Italy was great in the Six Nations this year. They finished fifth out of the six teams, but they were better than that suggests, with a couple of close defeats that could easily have been wins on another day. The issue the Italians will have here is that just nine players from the 23 that beat Wales to end Warren Gatland’s second run with the nation are in the squad to face South Africa.
This is a move done by design. Head coach Gonzalo Quesada knows that for Italy to improve on their 2023 World Cup disappointment by 2027, they will need to build depth behind an excellent starting XV.
Best Bets
Italy has produced some landmark wins over the years. Even with that, a victory here would be their biggest trick to date and their most monumental upset. It won’t happen. Even at full strength, Italy tends to struggle against power-game teams. While South Africa has been playing a more nuanced attacking style over the last 12 months, the power will still be there in spades.
The play here is to pick the score. I think South Africa wins this by 45+ points, running in a bunch of tries late as Italy is worn down. Play that if you want to bet on this one!
