The Six Nations is back after a week off, with Wales, England, and Italy all hosting Round 3 matches this weekend. Most eyes will be on Twickenham, where England entertain a Scottish side that have had their number in recent years.
Here is a look at the Calcutta Cup clash and the other two Round 3 fixtures with odds from BetXchange:
Wales VS Ireland – Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
When: Saturday, February 22
The opening game of the weekend is expected to be the biggest blowout. Ireland is currently a 23.5-point favorite as they visit Cardiff to face a Wales squad in turmoil.
It says everything about the difference in talent and squad depth that Ireland can make seven changes from the team that comfortably beat Scotland last time out and still be a three-try favorite.
Stand-in head coach Simon Easterby has handed recalls to incumbent British & Irish Lions No. 8 Jack Conan, fullback Jamie Osborne, and hooker Dan Sheehan. Sheehan’s recall comes with a bonus, as he will captain the side.
There are debutants in the starting XV and coming off the bench, while players including Caelan Doris, Ronan Kelleher, and Tadhg Furlong miss out through injury or rest protocols.
Matt Sherratt has taken over from Warren Gatland as the Welsh head coach on an interim basis. Gatland is the latest example of it always being best never to go back to a job, with his Welsh legacy tarnished as he could not get a tune out of this group of players.
Sherratt has made 10 changes to the Welsh Starting XV. The most notable is the recall of the talented but often injured fly-half Gareth Anscombe. Sherratt thinks the veteran gives Wales the best chance to win now, something this low-on-confidence squad needs.
Ireland will win this comfortably. The margin of victory is more complicated to call with a new coach on the sidelines for the visitors, but if pressed, I would take Ireland minus the points.
England VS Scotland – Twickenham Stadium, London
When: Saturday, February 22
The difference in the mood surrounding England after the late Elliot Daly try to beat France last week is night and day.
The narrow win ended England’s run of seven straight defeats against tier one opponents. It also dramatically shifted this line, though it is worth noting that France should have beaten England by a couple of tries if they hadn’t made several costly mistakes while on the English try line.
England has only beaten Scotland once in the last seven meetings. The visitors here have also dominated the Calcutta Cup clashes of late, winning the last four in a row. Simply put, Scotland has England’s number.
While England might not be as good as the win over France suggests, it is also true that Scotland isn’t as bad as their heavy defeat against Ireland indicates. Rugby is a game of matchups, and Scotland doesn’t match up well against the Irish. I would expect a bounce-back performance at Twickenham from Gregor Townsend’s side.
The absence of center Sione Tuipulotu and wingers Darcy Graham and Kyle Steyn is huge for a Scottish side that isn’t known for great depth. I think England will win, but don’t be shocked if it is by less than a try.
Italy VS France – Stadio Olimpico, Rome
When: Sunday, February 23
Italy hasn’t won in this fixture since 2013, meaning they have gone 15 straight games without beating France.
That run should have ended last year. Paolo Garbisi had a penalty with the clock in the red, but his goal attempt had to be rushed after the ball fell off the tee. The result was the ball hitting the post, with that extra coat of paint being the difference between a 13-13 draw and a historic 16-13 win.
I don’t expect this one to be as close. Italy struggled to win as a favorite against Wales, while France will look to rebound quickly and take some of that frustration of the defeat to England out on the Italians.
France travels to Ireland in Round 4, so they can still win this Championship. Expect good France to show up this weekend as they beat the Italians by at least 25 points.
