2022 MotoGP – Race 11: Motul TT Assen
Venue: TT Circuit Assen, Assen
Race Date: 26 June 2022
The final race of a grueling stretch in Europe leads to over a month off for the riders after the only race in July – the Grand Prix of Finland – was canceled due to the geopolitical climate in Northern Europe. That means that this is a huge race, with each rider looking to gain momentum going into the break.
The rider with the momentum right now is championship leader Fabio Quartararo. The Yamaha rider has simply dominated the last two races, winning both and setting the fastest lap in the process. Quartararo has just one pole position on the year, but when it comes to race speed he is often dominant and always consistent. His lead was stretched out again in Germany and he now boasts a tidy 34-point lead over Aleix Espargago.
Outside of Quartararo, it is hard to know what to make of the field. Francesco Bagnaia is either brilliant or terrible, with his fourth DNF of the season – and second in two races – leaving him with a mountain to climb to get back into the title picture. Here are a few guys who could take home a win on Sunday:
1 – Fabio Quartararo – 12/10
Quartararo wasn’t about to let Bagnaia take the pole here so easily. He almost was able to run down his competitor on his last flying lap, but was pushing too hard at De Sttrubben and nearly lost control. Second place on the grid will be fine for a racer who has proven this season that his race pace is even better than his elite qualifying times.
2 – Francesco Bagnaia – 16/10
If Bagnaia is to start his comeback and make Quartararo sweat closer to the end of the season then it has to begin now. He certainly seemed to take that message to heart on Saturday as he thundered around the Assen track and set an all-time lap record by three-tenths of a second. With Bagnaia is it isn’t about his speed, it is whether he can get his bike around the track for a full race without driver error or mechanical issues.
3 – Aleix Espargaro – 11/2
In this race, it feels like there are the two main contenders, Espargaro and then everyone else (Jorge Martin has the next best odds to win at 12/1). His final flying lap was cut short due to an accident, but he still starts from fifth on the grid. He has been there or there about all season long and if either (or both) of the top two fail to perform then he could snatch a win.
2022 Assen MotoGP Best Bets:
Race Winner: Bagnaia – 16/10
It feels like Bagnaia knows it is all or nothing now and he is going to throw everything at this. The mental mistakes are troubling for sure, but he is too good of a rider to continue to not win races. his is where he comes good.
Long Shot Winner: Martin – 12/1
Martin put his machine on the final spot on the front row with his own blistering lap in qualifying. He was on lap record pace – if it wasn’t for the two men in front of him – and therefore looks great value for a punt given his odds here.